The star pitcher representing the Atlanta Braves emerges as one of the most captivating figures on the pitching mound throughout the 2024 season. Fried’s on-field prowess is nothing short of remarkable, boasting a career record of 62 wins against 26 losses, with an impressive ERA standing at 3.03 and a strikeouts-to-innings-pitched ratio approaching parity.
Quietly but assuredly, he has established himself as one of the premier pitchers in the National League under the age of 30. As he approaches his first significant free agency period in 2025, comparisons are drawn between his statistics and trajectory with that of Blake Snell, the NL Cy Young winner of 2023.
Fried’s track record in previous seasons consistently reflects exceptional performance. Despite contending with injuries during the 2023 campaign, Fried managed to achieve a stellar 8-1 record, accompanied by an ERA of 2.55. His capacity to rebound from setbacks stands as a testament to his resilience and unwavering determination, qualities likely to serve him well in the forthcoming season.
Anticipating Fried’s performance in 2024, as the Braves’ secondary ace following the meteoric rise of superstar Spencer Strider, expectations are high. Blessed with restored health and supported by a formidable lineup, Fried is poised to receive unparalleled run support, leading many to predict a potential 20-win season, a feat he has yet to accomplish in his career, with his highest single-season win count being 17 in 2019.
According to Fangraphs ZIPs projections, Fried is slated to start 32 games in 2024. Given his career average of .705, it’s reasonable to anticipate him reaching the 20-win milestone this season.
Moreover, his ERA is projected to hover around 3.15 over 177 innings, yet his recent performance trend, averaging an ERA of 2.51 over 44 starts spanning two seasons, places him in the league of efficiency shared by pitchers like Jacob DeGrom and Shohei Ohtani. Maintaining this standard will likely be crucial for Fried as he approaches free agency.
With a career K/9 rate of 8.4 and an anticipated 177 innings pitched in the upcoming season, a target of 160 strikeouts is set. Betting on the over seems prudent, as Fried’s quest for a lucrative contract provides ample motivation for a standout performance.
Despite Fried’s impressive contributions, it’s unlikely he’ll remain with the Braves beyond the 2024 season. Historically disinclined to overspending on players past their prime, the Braves are expected to bid farewell to Fried, especially if he meets the lofty expectations set for him and the team clinches the NL title. Such a move would benefit both Fried, who stands to secure a substantial contract, and the Braves organization, which would have maximized his value as a 30-year-old pitcher.
Speculation regarding Fried’s future destination is rife, fueled in part by his West Coast roots. Teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants, and San Diego Padres are touted as potential suitors, alongside contenders from Texas and Arizona. This speculation adds an enticing subplot to the forthcoming season, as Fried’s performances could potentially attract attention from these interested parties.
One thing remains certain: if Fried delivers a season akin to that of Blake Snell, he will undoubtedly become the most sought-after free agent on the market, commanding a salary in the range of $30 million per annum, serving as all the incentive the Braves need to extract the best from him in the present season.
